Election 2010 Anomaly Watcher
5/13/2010 07:24:00 PM
Posted by johnhomer
While the 2010 Election was generally peaceful and the results came in fast, it doesn't mean the results were correct. I am referring to:
http://electionresults.ibanangayon.ph/res_reg5808114.html
http://electionresults.ibanangayon.ph/res_reg5808113.html
http://electionresults.ibanangayon.ph/res_reg5808112.html
http://electionresults.ibanangayon.ph/res_reg5808111.html
http://electionresults.ibanangayon.ph/res_reg5808110.html
These results are impossible and could not possibly happen. This is just for 5 clustered precincts. The effect of this mistake for a hundred CP is unimaginable lest a thousand. So i whipped out a small script to find other precincts where results are "questionable". The script basically checks for the "percentage" of votes garnered for a particular candidate. If it goes beyond the pre-configured threshold, it flags the file and makes a log.
Also, you need a local mirror of http://electionresults.ibanangayon.ph which can be easily accomplished with:
wget --mirror –w 2 –-convert-links http://electionresults.ibanangayon.ph
If you are on PLDT, use http://124.105.166.195/, for GlobeTelecom, use http://222.127.18.105/
Remember to edit $SearchFor, $mirror and $threshold to suit for needs.
#!/usr/bin/perl # # Election 2010 Anomaly Watcher # John Homer H Alvero # [email protected] # May 13, 2010 use HTML::TableExtract; use LWP::Simple; # SearchFor: # Possible Values: # # 1 = President # 3 = Vice President # 5 = Senator # 7 = Party List my $SearchFor = 1; my $mirror = "/var/www/election/electionresults.ibanangayon.ph/"; my $threshold = 90; &check_folders($mirror); # SUB(s) sub check_folders { my($dir) = @_; local (*FOLDER); my(@subfiles, $file, $specfile); opendir(FOLDER, $dir) or die "cannot open $dir"; @subfiles = readdir(FOLDER); closedir(FOLDER); foreach $file (@subfiles) { $specfile = $dir . $file; if (-f $specfile && $file =~ m/\S+\.html/) { my $page = get("file://" . $specfile) or die $!; $te = HTML::TableExtract->new( headers => [qw(Candidate Votes Percentage)], depth => 0, count => $SearchFor ); $te->parse($page); foreach $ts ($te->tables) { foreach $row ($ts->rows) { chop( $votes = @$row[2]); if ($votes > $threshold) { print "Found filename " . $specfile . " name:" . @$row[0] . " at $votes%" . "\n"; } } } #Check for Subdirectories (not really needed) } elsif (-d $specfile) { if ($specfile !~ m/\S+\.$/) { &check_folders($specfile . "\/"); } }#if }#for }#sub
UPDATE: (May 17, 2010)
I ran the script on my local mirror and here is what I found. (note that my local is not complete yet and scanning is not yet over)
[email protected]:/home/john/ibangangayon/124.105.166.195# /root/table.pl Found filename res_reg3629006.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3615004.html name:ACOSTA, Vetellano S. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3636022.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5512002.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg313022.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.20% Found filename res_reg3516000.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.20% Found filename res_reg3807028.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 99.09% Found filename res_reg3826010.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 99.49% Found filename res_reg6615003.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 98.15% Found filename res_reg3601016.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg705032.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.55% Found filename res_reg3812027.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.64% Found filename res_reg6610016.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 98.01% Found filename res_reg6606006.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.35% Found filename res_reg3807036.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 98.84% Found filename res_reg3835015.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 98.18% Found filename res_reg302019.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.88% Found filename res_reg3812029.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.67% Found filename res_reg705034.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.79% Found filename res_reg3826008.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 98.97% Found filename res_reg3803017.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 98.32% Found filename res_reg3803013.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 98.92% Found filename res_reg3807018.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3835014.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 98.73% Found filename res_reg3832009.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 99.24% Found filename res_reg3812064.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.29% Found filename res_reg3617010.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 99.34% Found filename res_reg3807023.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 99.57% Found filename res_reg3626009.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.84% Found filename res_reg702017.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.02% Found filename res_reg3832010.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 99.37% Found filename res_reg3812047.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg6615012.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 99.19% Found filename res_reg3812050.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.87% Found filename res_reg3629002.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg6607015.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg6610014.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 98.87% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:MADRIGAL, Jamby A. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:ACOSTA, Vetellano S. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg4406026.html name:GORDON, Richard J. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg112002.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 98.33% Found filename res_reg6606002.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.58% Found filename res_reg3832011.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 99.61% Found filename res_reg3629018.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg6610010.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 99.37% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:ACOSTA, Vetellano S. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:GORDON, Richard J. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:MADRIGAL, Jamby A. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5535035.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3812025.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.62% Found filename res_reg7001014.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 99.70% Found filename res_reg3812069.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.58% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:MADRIGAL, Jamby A. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:ACOSTA, Vetellano S. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:GORDON, Richard J. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg1529053.html name:ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3818005.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.55% Found filename res_reg3637008.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3833002.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.59% Found filename res_reg3807022.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 99.67% Found filename res_reg3802024.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 99.37% Found filename res_reg3836018.html name:ACOSTA, Vetellano S. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3635006.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 98.31% Found filename res_reg3803011.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 98.98% Found filename res_reg3807007.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 98.72% Found filename res_reg3835017.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 99.11% Found filename res_reg6610001.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 99.59% Found filename res_reg3114084.html name:BINAY, Jejomar C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3114084.html name:CHIPECO, Dominador Jr F. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3114084.html name:FERNANDO, Bayani F. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3114084.html name:LEGARDA, Loren B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3114084.html name:MANZANO, Eduardo B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3114084.html name:ROXAS, Manuel A. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3114084.html name:SONZA, Jose Y. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3114084.html name:YASAY, Perfecto R. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3812057.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.96% Found filename res_reg3812014.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.59% Found filename res_reg3812019.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.92% Found filename res_reg6604024.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 98.72% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:MADRIGAL, Jamby A. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:ACOSTA, Vetellano S. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg5527039.html name:GORDON, Richard J. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3836013.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3817021.html name:ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. at 98.65% Found filename res_reg705005.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 98.51% Found filename res_reg3637017.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 100.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:MADRIGAL, Jamby A. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:ACOSTA, Vetellano S. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:GORDON, Richard J. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:VILLAR, Manuel Jr B. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. at 300.00% Found filename res_reg3601017.html name:VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. at 300.00%
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May 13, 2010 at 9:07 PM
Given that the COMELEC webservers are quite busy, you may want to use "wget -S -v -t 0 -c [...]"
May 13, 2010 at 9:12 PM
John, why do you say that the pattern is "impossible" ? I'm just curious, as you might be seeing something I don't.
For me at this stage, it's not a mathematical improbability, and we have to be cautious in jumping to conclusions because the human mind is always looking for patterns even when there is none. Though I must admit, it still is a curious issue to have such numbers show up.
May 13, 2010 at 11:01 PM
Hello Drexx, thanks for the tip with wget.
I am just pasting my reply through the list.
The pattern is not mathematically impossible.
It is indeed possible. Statistically it is impossible, i should have
pointed that out. Second the same pattern is seen in Vice
presidential, party list, congressional, and other positions.
I might be wrong but of all the files i have mirrored so far (i
discontinued it already), I have yet to see a candidate getting above
95% of the votes for a particular position unless ofcourse he/she is
the only candidate.
I tried every effort to make the blog entry as unbiased and rational as possible. (notice the choice of words)
I am guessing. This might be caused by machines whose CF cards haven't been replaced with the new one. I do not claim that im an expert on this subject matter but, will the system (the one accepting pcos transmission) accept transmission from OLD CF cards? i believe there is wat they call a code signing.
i actually have another question, were the necessary safeguards, protections followed during the election? like key signing, vpn, also something like ballots being signed ( i forgot the correct term)
May 15, 2010 at 12:42 AM
Lumang kwento na yang statistical anomaly nang precincts na yan...
na investigate na yan ng GMA7 who went there and talked to the BEIs.
Those precincts (and that area) is full of Iglesia ni Cristo voters (as in 100%)
May 17, 2010 at 9:59 AM
Hello Anonymous, I have updated the list of precincts/files that follow the same pattern as my original post. Upto you to figure that out. I just hope those are bloc voting too. :)
May 17, 2010 at 10:00 AM
Notice that most of them are in ARMM.
May 22, 2010 at 12:48 AM
Hey John, just to update your blog, Chiara Zambrano of ABS-CBN did a story on the school in Rizal:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2gPMXofOmo&hd=1
May 22, 2010 at 8:12 AM
Hello Drex, thanks for the update. I've seen the video, there are also other CPs having almost the same pattern almost all of them from ARMM. I also updated the script to see other possible things-worth-looking. See revised script.